Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Apr 6 · 10:15 · Helmond Sport vs RKC Waalwijk
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 40%
A 36% home win. The market says 28%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Helmond Sport36%28%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
RKC Waalwijk40%46%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 72% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 38% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Helmond Sport
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 3 · at Jong AZ (A)0-2
- Mar 20 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-1
- Mar 16 · v SC Cambuur (H)0-1
- Mar 13 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)0-1
- Mar 6 · v TOP Oss (H)1-1
RKC Waalwijk
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Apr 3 · at MVV Maastricht (A)3-1
- Mar 21 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-3
- Mar 17 · at Almere City (A)2-2
- Mar 13 · v Jong AZ (H)2-1
- Mar 6 · at VVV-Venlo (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Helmond Sport | RKC Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.