Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 21 · 18:00 · Helmond Sport vs RKC Waalwijk
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 53%
We make it 71% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Helmond Sport29%26%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%26%−7
OursMarket
RKC Waalwijk53%48%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 55% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 74% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 36% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Helmond Sport
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 14 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-2
- Aug 9 · v De Graafschap (H)1-1
- Apr 24 · at FC Eindhoven (A)0-1
- Apr 17 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-0
- Apr 10 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-0
RKC Waalwijk
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Aug 14 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-2
- Aug 7 · at Vitesse (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · v Jong PSV (H)4-1
- Apr 17 · at ADO Den Haag (A)1-5
- Apr 10 · v FC Emmen (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Helmond Sport | RKC Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.