Superettan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK
Likeliest: Helsingborg win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Helsingborg39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Ljungskile SK34%33%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Helsingborg
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 19 · at Varbergs BoIS (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · at IK Brage (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Norrby IF (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at Östersunds FK (A)0-1
- Sep 9 · at Landskrona (A)2-1
Ljungskile SK
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v IK Brage (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · at Örebro (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · at GIF Sundsvall (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Falkenbergs FF (H)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Norrby IF (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Helsingborg | Ljungskile SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-4 | 2-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.