Superettan (Sweden) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · Helsingborg vs Norrby IF
Likeliest: Helsingborg win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Helsingborg44%45%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Norrby IF29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Helsingborg
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 14 · at Östersunds FK (A)0-1
- Sep 9 · at Landskrona (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Sandvikens IF (H)0-2
- Sep 1 · v Örebro (H)1-1
- Aug 27 · at Football Primetime (A)6-3
Norrby IF
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 14 · v Varbergs BoIS (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at Ljungskile SK (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Landskrona (H)1-3
- Aug 31 · at GIF Sundsvall (A)0-1
- Aug 26 · at Dalstorps IF (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Helsingborg | Norrby IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-4 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.