3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Tue, Oct 13 · 17:00 · Heming vs KFUM Oslo II
Likeliest: Heming win · 60%
A 22% draw. The market says 15%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heming60%56%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%15%+7
OursMarket
KFUM Oslo II18%28%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 72% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 85% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 67% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heming
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at Konnerud IL (A)5-5
- Sep 26 · v Ullern (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at Grei (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Frigg (H)5-1
- Sep 4 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)1-2
KFUM Oslo II
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v Ullern (H)1-3
- Sep 29 · at FK Union Carl Berner (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Konnerud IL (A)1-0
- Sep 21 · v Ready (H)2-5
- Sep 14 · at Asker (A)2-7
| Last 10 games | Heming | KFUM Oslo II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.