Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang vs Beijing Guoan
Likeliest: Beijing Guoan win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Beijing Guoan44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 16 · v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (H)0-1
- Oct 9 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)1-1
Beijing Guoan
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)1-0
- Oct 13 · at Buriram United (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)3-0
- Sep 15 · v Pohang Steelers (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Shanghai Port (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-7-2 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-3 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.