Super League (China) · Sun, Sep 6 · 11:35 · Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Likeliest: Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 34%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang43%34%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Chengdu Rongcheng33%38%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 61% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 62% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 66% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 47% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Aug 29 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)4-4
- Aug 15 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)1-4
- Aug 9 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)0-0
- Jul 31 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)1-1
Chengdu Rongcheng
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Aug 29 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)4-5
- Aug 15 · at Zhejiang (A)3-2
- Aug 8 · at Yunnan Yukun (A)0-1
- Aug 1 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang | Chengdu Rongcheng |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.