Super League (China) · Fri, Oct 16 · 11:35 · Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Likeliest: Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger18%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang
DrawDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)4-4
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Zhejiang (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-7-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.