Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 11 · 19:00 · Heracles Almelo vs Ajax
Likeliest: Ajax win · 40%
A 36% home win. The market says 19%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo36%19%+18
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+2
OursMarket
Ajax40%60%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 40% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 81% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 24% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Apr 5 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-4
- Mar 20 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · at AZ (A)0-4
- Mar 6 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · v PSV (H)1-3
Ajax
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Apr 4 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Mar 22 · at Feyenoord (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-0
- Mar 7 · at FC Groningen (A)1-3
- Mar 1 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.