Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:00 · Heracles Almelo vs FC Den Bosch
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 43%
A 35% away win. The market says 19%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo43%60%−16
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
FC Den Bosch35%19%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 63% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 81% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 40% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 76% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
LossLossLossLossWin
- Aug 7 · at VVV-Venlo (A)4-3
- May 17 · v FC Groningen (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Telstar (A)0-3
- May 3 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · v FC Volendam (H)0-2
FC Den Bosch
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Aug 8 · v Almere City FC (H)1-1
- Apr 24 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-3
- Apr 20 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- Apr 17 · at TOP Oss (A)2-4
- Apr 10 · v SC Cambuur (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | FC Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.