Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 50%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo25%20%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
FC Groningen50%59%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 67% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 41% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 26% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 10 · at Telstar (A)0-3
- May 3 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · v FC Volendam (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Ajax (H)0-3
- Apr 5 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-4
FC Groningen
WinDrawLossLossWin
- May 10 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-1
- May 2 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
- Apr 25 · at Feyenoord (A)1-3
- Apr 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-0
- Apr 4 · at Telstar (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.