Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Mar 6 · 19:00 · Heracles Almelo vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 26%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo44%26%+18
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
FC Utrecht34%47%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 54% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 57% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 53% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 74% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 36% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 28 · v PSV (H)1-3
- Feb 22 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-4
- Feb 14 · v NAC Breda (H)0-1
- Feb 7 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-4
- Feb 1 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
FC Utrecht
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Mar 1 · v AZ (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
- Feb 8 · v Feyenoord (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.