Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 26 · 12:30 · Heracles Almelo vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 31%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo36%44%−7
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
FC Volendam39%31%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 69% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 59% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 11 · v Ajax (H)0-3
- Apr 5 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-4
- Mar 20 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · at AZ (A)0-4
- Mar 6 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-0
FC Volendam
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 10 · at FC Twente (A)1-2
- Apr 5 · v Feyenoord (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-2
- Mar 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.