Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 1 · 13:30 · Heracles Almelo vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 46%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo46%43%+3
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−5
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard32%29%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 25 · at Feyenoord (A)2-4
- Jan 18 · v FC Twente (H)0-2
- Jan 14 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
- Jan 11 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-2
- Dec 20 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-3
Fortuna Sittard
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Jan 25 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
- Dec 21 · v AZ (H)4-3
- Dec 17 · v Almere City (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Heracles Almelo form·Fortuna Sittard form·Head-to-head record