Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Nov 22 · 20:00 · Heracles Almelo vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 36%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo50%36%+14
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles27%38%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 62% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 64% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 49% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
LossLossWinWinWin
- Nov 8 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Nov 2 · v PEC Zwolle (H)8-2
- Oct 29 · at NAC Breda (A)4-1
- Oct 25 · at FC Volendam (A)0-3
- Oct 18 · v Feyenoord (H)0-7
Go Ahead Eagles
WinWinLossLossWin
- Nov 9 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
- Nov 6 · at Salzburg (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · at NAC Breda (A)0-1
- Oct 26 · v Excelsior (H)2-0
- Oct 23 · v Aston Villa (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Heracles Almelo form·Go Ahead Eagles form·Head-to-head record