Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:00 · Heracles Almelo vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo68%65%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
Jong AZ Alkmaar16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 4 · v De Graafschap (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Eindhoven (A)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)6-1
- Aug 14 · v FC Den Bosch (H)3-2
- Aug 7 · at VVV-Venlo (A)4-3
Jong AZ Alkmaar
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 5 · at FC Dordrecht (A)6-3
- Aug 31 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · v MVV Maastricht (H)1-2
- Aug 21 · at FC Emmen (A)1-3
- Aug 17 · at De Graafschap (A)5-2
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | Jong AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 3-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.