Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:30 · Heracles Almelo vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 35%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo51%35%+15
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−4
OursMarket
NAC Breda26%37%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 52% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 57% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 63% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 65% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 49% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Feb 7 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-4
- Feb 1 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Feyenoord (A)2-4
- Jan 18 · v FC Twente (H)0-2
- Jan 14 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
NAC Breda
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 6 · v Excelsior (H)0-2
- Jan 30 · v FC Twente (H)2-2
- Jan 24 · at PSV (A)2-2
- Jan 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)3-4
- Jan 10 · at FC Groningen (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.