Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 28 · 17:45 · Heracles Almelo vs PSV
Likeliest: PSV win · 54%
A 26% home win. The market says 12%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo26%12%+14
OursMarket
Draw21%16%+5
OursMarket
PSV54%72%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 28% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 88% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 84% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 14% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Feb 22 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-4
- Feb 14 · v NAC Breda (H)0-1
- Feb 7 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-4
- Feb 1 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Feyenoord (A)2-4
PSV
WinWinWinLossWin
- Feb 21 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-1
- Feb 13 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Feb 8 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Feb 4 · v SC Heerenveen (H)4-1
- Feb 1 · v Feyenoord (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.