Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 20 · 15:30 · Heracles Almelo vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 46%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo33%29%+4
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen46%45%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 39% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Dec 16 · v Hoogeveen (H)4-1
- Dec 13 · at PSV (A)3-4
- Dec 6 · v Telstar (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)4-2
SC Heerenveen
WinLossLossWinWin
- Dec 17 · at Feyenoord (A)3-2
- Dec 14 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · v PSV (H)0-2
- Nov 28 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · v AZ (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.