Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 6 · 19:00 · Heracles Almelo vs Telstar
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 50%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo50%42%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
Telstar28%32%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 58% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 68% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 57% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 29 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)4-2
- Nov 8 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Nov 2 · v PEC Zwolle (H)8-2
- Oct 29 · at NAC Breda (A)4-1
Telstar
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 30 · v Feyenoord (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- Nov 7 · at FC Twente (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Oct 29 · at Lisse (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.