Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 26 · 14:30 · Heracles Almelo vs Vitesse
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heracles Almelo63%61%+3
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Vitesse17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heracles Almelo
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Almere City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)3-2
- Sep 4 · v De Graafschap (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Eindhoven (A)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)6-1
Vitesse
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · v TOP Oss (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Den Bosch (A)4-1
- Aug 21 · v Almere City FC (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Heracles Almelo | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.