3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Fri, Oct 9 · 16:15 · Herd vs Spjelkavik
Likeliest: Spjelkavik win · 36%
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Herd36%55%−19
OursMarket
Draw28%21%+6
OursMarket
Spjelkavik36%23%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 75% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 77% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 45% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 79% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 70% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Herd
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 2 · at Molde FK II (A)2-6
- Sep 26 · v FK Kvik (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Byasen Toppfotball (A)1-6
- Sep 12 · v Orkla (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Melhus (H)1-4
Spjelkavik
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 4 · v Ranheim 2 (H)2-5
- Sep 26 · at Melhus (A)1-0
- Sep 21 · v Rosenborg BK II (H)0-4
- Sep 14 · at Aalesund FK II (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · at Nardo (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Herd | Spjelkavik |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 3-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.