2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:00 · Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld
Likeliest: Hertha BSC win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hertha BSC56%54%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Arminia Bielefeld22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hertha BSC
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 16 · at Holstein Kiel (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v 1. FC Magdeburg (H)2-1
Arminia Bielefeld
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v 1. FC Heidenheim (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v FC St. Pauli (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Hertha BSC | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 89% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 78% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.