2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 25 · 11:00 · Hertha BSC vs Holstein Kiel
Likeliest: Hertha BSC win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 48%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hertha BSC55%48%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Holstein Kiel22%27%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 52% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 64% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hertha BSC
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Apr 19 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Kaiserslautern (H)0-1
- Apr 4 · at Dynamo Dresden (A)1-0
- Mar 22 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)5-2
- Mar 14 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-1
Holstein Kiel
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 17 · v Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
- Apr 10 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · v Preußen Münster (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)3-2
- Mar 14 · v Nürnberg (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Hertha BSC | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.