2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:30 · Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Likeliest: Hertha BSC win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hertha BSC61%59%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
SpVgg Greuther Fürth18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hertha BSC
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v 1. FC Magdeburg (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)5-3
- Aug 22 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)1-1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 18 · v 1. FC Magdeburg (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v 1. FC Heidenheim (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Energie Cottbus (A)4-3
- Aug 23 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hertha BSC | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.