Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Sep 26 · 20:00 · HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa
Likeliest: HFX Wanderers FC win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HFX Wanderers FC42%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Atlético Ottawa31%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · v York United FC (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Cavalry FC (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Pacific FC (A)3-4
- Aug 22 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-0
Atlético Ottawa
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Forge FC (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Pacific FC (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · v York United FC (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Cavalry FC (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | HFX Wanderers FC | Atlético Ottawa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-3 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.