Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Mon, Oct 12 · 20:00 · HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC
Likeliest: Cavalry FC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HFX Wanderers FC22%23%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
Cavalry FC51%53%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 60% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 30% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · at Forge FC (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · v York United FC (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Cavalry FC (H)1-3
Cavalry FC
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at York United FC (A)1-3
- Sep 30 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Forge FC (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Pacific FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | HFX Wanderers FC | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-4 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.