Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sun, Oct 25 · 20:00 · HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Supra Du Quebec
Likeliest: HFX Wanderers FC win · 45%
Likely score: 2–1
A 45% home win. The market says 31%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HFX Wanderers FC45%31%+13
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
FC Supra Du Quebec33%44%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 56% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 69% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 42% | +16 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Vancouver FC (A)1-2
- Oct 12 · v Cavalry FC (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Forge FC (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · v York United FC (H)4-1
FC Supra Du Quebec
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 16 · v York United FC (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · v Vancouver FC (H)2-2
- Oct 7 · at York United FC (A)2-1
- Oct 4 · v Pacific FC (H)5-0
- Sep 26 · at Cavalry FC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | HFX Wanderers FC | FC Supra Du Quebec |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.