Premiership (Scotland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 · Hibernian vs Celtic
Likeliest: Celtic win · 58%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hibernian19%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Celtic58%54%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 30% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hibernian
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Falkirk FC (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Dundee United (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Aberdeen (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Kilmarnock (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at St. Johnstone (A)1-2
Celtic
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Hearts (H)7-1
- Oct 15 · at Benfica (A)1-4
- Oct 11 · at Motherwell (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Rangers (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Hibernian | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.