Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 19:00 · Hibernian vs KAA Gent
Likeliest: Hibernian win · 60%
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hibernian60%34%+26
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−7
OursMarket
KAA Gent18%37%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 43% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 63% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 66% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 48% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hibernian
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Aug 20 · at KAA Gent (A)0-0
- Aug 13 · at KF Shkëndija (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Rangers (A)2-1
- Aug 6 · v KF Shkëndija (H)2-1
- Aug 2 · v Motherwell (H)1-2
KAA Gent
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 20 · v Hibernian (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)2-1
- Aug 13 · v Göteborg (H)1-1
- Aug 9 · v KV Mechelen (H)2-0
- Aug 6 · at Göteborg (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Hibernian | KAA Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 22% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 67% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.