Premiership (Scotland) · Tue, Sep 15 · 18:45 · Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Likeliest: Hibernian win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hibernian64%62%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Kilmarnock17%17%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hibernian
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 6 · at St. Johnstone (A)1-2
- Sep 3 · v Hearts (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Dundee FC (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · v KAA Gent (H)2-3
- Aug 20 · at KAA Gent (A)0-0
Kilmarnock
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at Aberdeen (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · v St. Mirren (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Dundee United (H)0-4
- Aug 9 · v Celtic (H)1-5
- Aug 2 · at St. Johnstone (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Hibernian | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.