Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:00 · Hillerød vs AaB
Likeliest: AaB win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hillerød24%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
AaB50%47%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hillerød
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Hvidovre (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v FC Fredericia (H)0-2
- Sep 18 · at Kolding IF (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v AB (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at HB Køge (A)1-1
AaB
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Vejle (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Esbjerg (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v Vendsyssel FF (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Hvidovre (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · at AB (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Hillerød | AaB |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.