Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Sep 12 · 11:00 · Hillerød vs AB
Likeliest: AB win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hillerød35%36%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
AB38%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hillerød
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 4 · at HB Køge (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Hobro (H)3-1
- Aug 20 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)1-1
- Aug 9 · at Vejle (A)4-5
AB
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 5 · v AaB (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Kolding IF (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Hvidovre (H)1-1
- Aug 16 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)3-0
- Aug 8 · at Hobro (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Hillerød | AB |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.