3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Hinna vs Viking FK II
Likeliest: Viking FK II win · 38%
A 27% draw. The market says 18%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hinna35%34%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%18%+9
OursMarket
Viking FK II38%48%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 81% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 82% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 42% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hinna
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Brodd (A)0-4
- Oct 2 · v Staal Jørpeland (H)2-4
- Sep 28 · at Haugesund II (A)4-2
- Sep 19 · v Åkra (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Madla (H)1-4
Viking FK II
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Vindbjart (H)5-1
- Oct 5 · at Odds BK II (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Våg FK (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · at Staal Jørpeland (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Varhaug (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Hinna | Viking FK II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.