Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Sep 26 · 16:00 · HJK Klubi 04 vs JäPS
Likeliest: HJK Klubi 04 win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HJK Klubi 0457%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
JäPS21%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HJK Klubi 04
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at FC Haka (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Jippo Joensuu (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v KäPa (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at SJK Akatemia (A)6-2
- Aug 22 · v MP (H)4-3
JäPS
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 18 · v EIF (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at KTP (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · at SJK Akatemia (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v KäPa (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at PK-35 (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | HJK Klubi 04 | JäPS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 3-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.