Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · HJK vs IF Gnistan
Likeliest: HJK win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HJK63%67%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
IF Gnistan16%14%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 86% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 33% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HJK
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 12 · at AC Oulu (A)4-3
- Oct 8 · v VPS (H)6-0
- Sep 18 · at IF Gnistan (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at KuPS (A)0-0
- Sep 9 · v Inter Turku (H)2-1
IF Gnistan
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 12 · at VPS (A)0-1
- Oct 7 · v Inter Turku (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · v HJK (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at AC Oulu (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · v KuPS (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | HJK | IF Gnistan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.