Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:00 · HJK vs KuPS
Likeliest: HJK win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HJK52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
KuPS22%24%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HJK
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v IF Gnistan (H)4-0
- Oct 12 · at AC Oulu (A)4-3
- Oct 8 · v VPS (H)6-0
- Sep 18 · at IF Gnistan (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at KuPS (A)0-0
KuPS
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v VPS (H)2-0
- Oct 15 · v Trabzonspor (H)2-4
- Oct 11 · at Inter Turku (A)0-1
- Oct 8 · v AC Oulu (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at VPS (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | HJK | KuPS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.