1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Aug 16 · 19:00 · HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split
Likeliest: HNK Hajduk Split win · 42%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Gorica35%23%+13
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
HNK Hajduk Split42%51%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 50% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 77% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 30% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Gorica
LossLoss
- Aug 8 · at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A)1-3
- Aug 1 · v NK Osijek (H)0-2
HNK Hajduk Split
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 13 · v FK Žalgiris (H)4-0
- Aug 9 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)2-2
- Aug 6 · at FK Žalgiris (A)5-2
- Aug 2 · at NK Varaždin (A)1-2
- Jul 30 · at Pafos FC (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | HNK Gorica | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 63% |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.