1. HNL (Croatia) · Mon, Aug 31 · 19:00 · HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka
Likeliest: HNK Rijeka win · 41%
A 32% home win. The market says 17%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Gorica32%17%+15
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
HNK Rijeka41%58%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 42% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 83% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 23% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Gorica
LossLossLossLoss
- Aug 22 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v HNK Hajduk Split (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A)1-3
- Aug 1 · v NK Osijek (H)0-2
HNK Rijeka
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 27 · v FC Midtjylland (H)1-4
- Aug 23 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)3-2
- Aug 20 · at FC Midtjylland (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-2
- Aug 13 · at Ilves (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | HNK Gorica | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 33% |
| Both teams scored | — | 44% |
| Clean sheets | — | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.