1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Likeliest: HNK Gorica win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Gorica38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Gorica
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at NK Osijek (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v NK Rudeš (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at NK Istra 1961 (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · v NK Varaždin (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)0-1
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · v NK Varaždin (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v HNK Rijeka (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | HNK Gorica | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-3 | 1-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.