1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Aug 1 · 19:00 · HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek
Likeliest: HNK Gorica win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 38%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Gorica51%38%+13
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−6
OursMarket
NK Osijek25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 43% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 62% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 54% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.