Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · HNK Hajduk Split vs AFC Ajax
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 69%
Likely score: 1–2
A 69% away win. The market says 64%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Hajduk Split12%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
AFC Ajax69%64%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 32% | 36% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 20% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Hajduk Split
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at HNK Rijeka (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at NK Rudeš (A)4-0
- Aug 31 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)2-0
AFC Ajax
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)5-1
- Sep 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)5-1
- Sep 5 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | HNK Hajduk Split | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-0 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.