1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · HNK Hajduk Split vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Likeliest: GNK Dinamo Zagreb win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Hajduk Split29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
GNK Dinamo Zagreb43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Hajduk Split
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at HNK Rijeka (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at NK Rudeš (A)4-0
- Aug 31 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)2-2
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 4 · at HNK Vukovar 1991 (A)4-0
- Sep 20 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · at NK Osijek (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v HNK Gorica (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | HNK Hajduk Split | GNK Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-0 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.