1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Aug 9 · 19:00 · HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Istra 1961
Likeliest: HNK Hajduk Split win · 59%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Hajduk Split59%66%−7
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
NK Istra 196120%15%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 57% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 85% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 34% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 82% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Hajduk Split
LossWinLossLossWin
- Aug 6 · at FK Žalgiris (A)5-2
- Aug 2 · at NK Varaždin (A)1-2
- Jul 30 · at Pafos FC (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · v Pafos FC (H)2-0
- Jul 16 · at MŠK Žilina (A)1-2
NK Istra 1961
Loss
- Aug 1 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — |
| Clean sheets | 33% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.