1. HNL (Croatia) · Mon, Aug 31 · 16:30 · HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Likeliest: HNK Hajduk Split win · 61%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Hajduk Split61%65%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb19%14%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 59% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 35% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 82% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Hajduk Split
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 27 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · v NK Osijek (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)2-2
- Aug 16 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-1
- Aug 13 · v FK Žalgiris (H)4-0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
WinWinLossLoss
- Aug 21 · at NK Rudeš (A)1-4
- Aug 15 · at NK Osijek (A)0-1
- Aug 8 · v HNK Gorica (H)3-1
- Aug 1 · at NK Istra 1961 (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | — |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.