1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Aug 23 · 19:00 · HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
Likeliest: HNK Hajduk Split win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 50%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Hajduk Split63%50%+13
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−3
OursMarket
NK Osijek16%26%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 74% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 50% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 66% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Hajduk Split
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 20 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)2-2
- Aug 16 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-1
- Aug 13 · v FK Žalgiris (H)4-0
- Aug 9 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)2-2
- Aug 6 · at FK Žalgiris (A)5-2
NK Osijek
WinWinWin
- Aug 15 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)1-0
- Aug 8 · at NK Rudeš (A)6-1
- Aug 1 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.