1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varaždin
Likeliest: HNK Hajduk Split win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Hajduk Split51%57%−6
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
NK Varaždin19%16%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 84% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 43% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 78% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Hajduk Split
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 15 · v AFC Ajax (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at HNK Rijeka (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at NK Rudeš (A)4-0
NK Varaždin
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v NK Osijek (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v NK Rudeš (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.