Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 18:45 · HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland
Likeliest: HNK Rijeka win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 32%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Rijeka48%32%+16
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
FC Midtjylland28%40%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 46% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 60% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 68% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 45% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Rijeka
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 23 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)3-2
- Aug 20 · at FC Midtjylland (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-2
- Aug 13 · at Ilves (A)1-1
- Aug 6 · v Ilves (H)1-0
FC Midtjylland
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 23 · v Randers FC (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · v HNK Rijeka (H)2-0
- Aug 16 · at Lyngby (A)1-1
- Aug 13 · v Bohemian FC (H)3-2
- Aug 6 · at Bohemian FC (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | HNK Rijeka | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.