1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:00 · HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split
Likeliest: HNK Rijeka win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Rijeka43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
HNK Hajduk Split27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Rijeka
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 16 · at NK Vrbovec (A)6-0
- Sep 12 · at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v NK Osijek (H)4-1
- Aug 31 · at HNK Gorica (A)0-0
- Aug 27 · v FC Midtjylland (H)1-4
HNK Hajduk Split
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at NK Rudeš (A)4-0
- Aug 31 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · v NK Osijek (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | HNK Rijeka | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.