1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Aug 23 · 16:30 · HNK Rijeka vs NK Istra 1961
Likeliest: HNK Rijeka win · 71%
A 71% home win. The market says 66%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Rijeka71%66%+5
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−2
OursMarket
NK Istra 196111%14%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 34% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 83% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Rijeka
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 20 · at FC Midtjylland (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-2
- Aug 13 · at Ilves (A)1-1
- Aug 6 · v Ilves (H)1-0
- Aug 2 · v NK Rudeš (H)2-1
NK Istra 1961
LossDrawWin
- Aug 15 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)3-0
- Aug 9 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)2-2
- Aug 1 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | HNK Rijeka | NK Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-2 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | — |
| Both teams scored | 29% | — |
| Clean sheets | 43% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.